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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It frequently acts as a kind of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic improvement wins the award. In practice, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or just the greatest shock.

But this year's field is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division champions fading and recent also-rans rising together. Under an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against several other elite coaches.

Here is how the projected vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his special ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this is not a normal year!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

Still