Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
