A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
